Chief science diplomacy expert at AAAS weighs in on scant prospects in Cancun climate talks: "The current climate summit process is unlikely to produce a global treaty that includes the United States as a signatory, let alone one that would stand any chance of being ratified by 67 senators. It also seems unlikely that China and other non annex I countries would commit to any internationally binding cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

"Political issues surrounding climate change policy are only going to get trickier in the United States. President Obama all but stated after this last election that domestic cap and trade is a non-starter -- a reality which will not change with the next election cycle. The question now is whether the push to cut budgets and the rise of a more fiscally hawkish power base in congress will result in big decreases in energy research funding. I also suspect there will be a much greater push from the next Congress to use hearings to question the scientific basis for EPA regulations of greenhouse gases. The dynamics of this are so interesting both domestically and internationally - and almost a decade after the US pulled out of the Kyoto process, the fundamentals have not changed too much.

Vaughan C. Turekian, Ph.D.
Chief International Officer,
Director Center for Science Diplomacy
diplomacy.aaas.org
AAAS,
vturekia@aaas.org,
http://www.aaas.org/ScienceTalk/turekian.shtml

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