chemTrailActivist · @chemTrailActivi
4th Dec 2013 from TwitLonger
#syria #iran #saudiarabia #obama #putin #bandar #israel
[Putin is playing one side against the other (Iran versus Saudi Arabia) in Syria -- And it all has to do with oil pipelines. Obama - Hillary - Petraeus guilty of staining U.S. hands with Syrian blood -- Do you honestly believe Obama's motive is (was) nobler?]
Iran is likely to emerge as the centrepiece of a vicious “pipeline war,” in which the western alliance is expected to compete with rising economies for the diversion of Eurasia’s vast energy resources in their direction.
It is likely that the revival of the Nabucco-West pipeline project will emerge as one of its foremost battlegrounds.
Work on the Nabucco project — to funnel gas from West Asia and the Caspian littoral into the European Union via Turkey — has virtually stopped because of the non-availability of sufficient gas.
Iran, which has the second largest gas reserves in the world, is now well positioned to fill this energy void.
Yet, Iran’s participation in a revived Nabucco scheme — a core western enterprise — is bound to upset Russia, which has exercised extraordinary leverage over Europe by monopolising foreign gas supplies to the continent.
However, Iran holds a trump card, which can retain Moscow’s standing on top of Eurasia’s energy pyramid.
Iran is the core participant of the Iran-Iraq-Syria (IIS) pipeline project that was signed in the Iranian port city of Bushehr in June 2011, shortly after the Syrian uprising began.
The pipeline is configured to pump around 40 billion cubic meters annually, drawn mainly from Iran’s giant South Pars gasfield, towards Syria’s Mediterranean port of Tartus, and home to a Russian base.
As it develops, there is a proposal that the pipeline can branch along an undersea section into Greece — the country where a node of Russia’s Europe-bound South Stream pipeline is also planned.
If Greece becomes the junction for the two pipelines to merge, it will extinguish the western dream of pumping Persian Gulf gas into Europe along an independent route that is outside Moscow’s control.
Iran is also well located to magnify its role as an energy provider to China and India.
In a visit to New Delhi within hours of the signing of the Geneva agreement, Iran’s Deputy Minister for International and Commercial Affairs Ali Majedi revived the proposal of the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline.
Significantly, he recommended IPI’s extension to China, providing a marginalised India an opportunity to lock itself in the Eurasian Great Game.
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/gamechanger-at-geneva/article5418669.ece
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Google Translation
In short, to pay for state pensions and index, and thus to maintain faith in the regime, we need huge amount of money.
And the Kremlin has no money.
But – it is logical to assume in connection with the visit of Sultan Ben – again an opportunity to earn a weakened position on Syria under the “Geneva-2.”
And not a measly $ 15 billion that the Russian economy, by and large, as dead a poultice. And much more.
What exchange this time suggested Bandar Bin Sultan?
For that, roughly speaking, Moscow could merge Bashar Assad?
- If you pass Syria, oil prices will rise, – said
the chief researcher at the Center for Modernization Studies at the European University of St. Petersburg Andrei Zaostrovtsev . –
Syria – a kind of barrier to Iran.
If her hand over Tehran’s position will not be as conventionally peaceful as it is now.
Islamic Republic certainly react to this turn aggressive.
And it immediately entail strengthening sanctions against it by the U.S..
Perhaps it will reach a military conflict.
A Gulf War always means one thing – higher oil prices.
From the perspective of conspiracy, such a scenario as a bargaining chip between Russia and Saudi Arabia is possible.
“SP”: – Now oil is $ 110 per barrel. How she should appreciate that the Russian GDP began to grow steadily?
- In order for our economy to work, as before 2008, you need to oil price increased annually by 10-15%.
This was stated by former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin .
“SP”: – The aggravation of the situation around Iran will provide the kind of growth?
- There is a chance that, in this case the oil will rise to 10-15% – at least a year.
And our guide, is known to act on the principle of the day to stand, hold the night …
- Amount of the order of 15 billion Russia is not interested – said military expert, blogger Anatoly El Murid . –
The reasons for the deterioration of situation in the Russian economy are fundamental, and plug holes one-time infusions useless.
Bandar Bin Sultan simply can not offer the necessary amount – even $ 50 billion will not solve our problems.
Rather, discussed at the talks in the Kremlin was about political arrangements.
One of the main problems today Putin – is security 2014 Olympics.
Bandar Bin Sultan can blackmail the Russian head of state increased threat of terrorist activity during the Games, and, conversely, to ensure their safety, if Russia certain steps in Syria.
Olympics for Putin – fashion design, but in the country related to the Games pretty heavy.
If during the Olympics there will be serious terrorist attacks, it certainly will hurt the reputation of our president.
“SP”: – What Bandar bin Sultan wants in exchange for their guarantee?
- Saudi Arabia, apparently, agreed that “the Geneva-2″ will take place – that the Saudis today orient the Syrian opposition to participate in the conference.
The main objective of the conference – the question of power in Damascus:
in Geneva will trade for ministerial posts in the Syrian government.
In 2014 Syria’s presidential elections.
If the opposition on the basis of bargaining at the conference will be able to get serious power ministries, the election it may well compete for the presidency.
Most likely, the problem Bandar bin Sultan – by hook or by crook to seek from Putin to the Syrian opposition gave one of the power ministries.
A representative of the opposition led by the army if not, then one of the major intelligence agencies –
the Syrian Air Force Intelligence (is the most powerful intelligence agency of Syria Hafez al-Assad since the time) or
“Al-Mukhabarat” (similar to the KGB), – and
the opposition would have a powerful force resource.
This exchange is quite possible:
we will guarantee the security during the Olympics, you are us –
the transfer of the superstructure of the Syrian opposition.
“SP”: – Assume Putin agree to exchange. In this case, we rent Syria?
- This is a difficult question.
We, like the Saudis, not satisfied that Iran overly amplified in the Middle East, that it remains the sole master of the situation in the region.
Russia is interested in creating a counterweight to Tehran, and therefore the position of Saudi Arabia to destroy it completely by hand.
It is perhaps more difficult game than just renting Syria.
We rent it certainly will not.
But at the same time, we do not want to Tehran’s position in Damascus were comparable with ours.
Therefore, we may assume Saudi Arabia to Syria – via controlled Saudis Syrian opposition.
And try on the contradictions between Riyadh and Tehran to stand their own game.
“SP”: – Explain how Iran now controls Syria?
- Tehran has strong support to Damascus.
Employees of an elite unit of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – special services “Al-Quds” (the equivalent of our GRU) – operate in Syria role of military advisers.
According to my information, they were planning a counteroffensive at Damascus in November 2012, and offensive at Aleppo.
Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani , commander of the “Al-Quds Force” and the head of Iran’s strategy in Syria is directly related to “Hezbollah”.
It is through the Iranians Assad managed to break the relation “Hezbollah” to the Syrian conflict.
So now the military position of Iranians in Syria is very serious – more serious than ours.
“SP”: – What Iran wants for their assistance?
- Tehran wants to lend a gas pipeline in the western direction.
A year ago, the Iranians announced the construction of a gas pipeline Iran-Iraq-Syria, with the prospect to connect it with the Egyptian gas pipeline Arab Gas Pipeline.
The design capacity of the Iranian gas pipeline – 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which is comparable with our “Nord Stream” (55 billion).
Moreover, of these 40 billion “cubes” Iranians are planning to sell 30-35 billion directly in the Middle East – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Turkey.
This huge amount of money.
“SP”: – If Russia were to introduce a Syrian government-controlled opposition to the Saudis, they slow down the construction of the pipeline?
- Hardly. Rather, try to introduce his people to guide the Syrian gas pipeline, and thereby partially take it under control.
A section of the global gas market, Russia has its own global economic interest.
But the Saudis to start again, you need to force the Ministry in Syria.
And build their positions they will try it through Russia to the “Geneva-2.”
http://svpressa.ru/politic/article/78517/