Kenneth Arctander J. · @k_arctander
15th Jul 2014 from TwitLonger
Interesting on #easternukraine #savedonbasspeople #novorossiya
"By July 12th the relation of forces is the following: the militia hinatioas 29-33 thousand under arms on the territory of the DPR and the LPR, up to 30-35 units of armor (not including the combat-capable monuments) + unknown quantity of the MRLS, howitzers, various cannons (anti-tank, recoilless), and mortars, a significant number of MANPADS and several SAMs.
The junta concentrated by the 12th up to 48-53 thousands of infantry, up to 280 units of armor, up to 250 cannons and mortars, 10-12 helicopters, and up to 25 aircraft."
You mentioned also that this would mean around 8 brigade level groups. I believe that is what you see on the various Order of Battle maps available on the web. For example:
https://mobile.twitter.com/A_J_S_B/status/488988521215324160
https://mobile.twitter.com/A_J_S_B/media/grid?idx=1&tid=488990648532758529
These imply brigade level NAF Order of Battle force placement as follows:
1) Donetsk - 2 brigades? (DNR - Strelkov)
2) Gorlivka (DNR - Bezler)
3) Stakhanov-Alchevisk (LNR - ?)
4) Severodonetsk (LNR - Mozgovoi)
5) Lugansk - 2 Bridgades (LNR - Bolotov)
6) Krasnodon + sub-brigades at Sverdlovsk, Izvaryne and Rovenky - (LNR - ?)
7) Snizhne and Torez + subbrigades - 2 Brigades (DNR - Vostok Batallion?)
8) Saur Mogila and Amvrosiivka - 2 Brigades (DNR - Vostok Batallion)
By my count, that is 12 brigade sized formations on these maps. I don't have names of all the commanders. As you can see, liquidation of the southern pocket of the attempted Ukrainian pincer movement would probably free up one LNR brigade and two DNR brigades for offensive operations. The success of the pocket operation intially probably also accounts for the abandonment of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk and the incursion through Metalist and Schastye, as it was necessary for LNR forces to redeploy south to counteract the advance and protect the border and to redeploy Vostok from Donetsk to the Saur-Mogila and Snizhne area, which exposed Donetsk and probably accounted for the intrigue there prior to Strelkov's arrival.
(part 1 of 1)
(part 2 of 2)
Now to what is next. I would imagine based on statements the strategic offensive plan for the NAF would be:
Joint Operation: Liquidate the southern pocket via starvation/surrender
LNR: Transfer forces to Luhansk and liquidate airport pocket, then push north with two brigades to cut off Schastye and join up to Severodonetsk group then further offensive operations to clear north of Luhansk Oblast to the Russian border. Future contingent operations towards Kharkov and Kremenchuk forming a northern pincer arouns the rats lair in Dinpropetrovsk and a future bridgehead over the Dnipr for offensive operations towards Kiev.
DNR: iquidation of airport pocket and offensive with three brigades south to Mariupol to reopen sea access followed by a general frontal assault towards Slavyansk and Krasnoarmiisk to regain Oblast border held on May 11. Future contingent operations towards Melitopol and Crimea, attempting to secure a Dnipr bridgehead around Kherson for offensive operations towards Kiev and Odessa.
Joint Operation: After relinking the pincers around Kirovohrad and liquidation of Dnipropetrovsk in rear forward assault on Kiev with side assulats on Sumy and Odessa, eventually creating a Novorossiya frontier near the line Transnistria-Vinnytsia-Zhitomir.
The success of such an audacious plan will depend on how much of the armed forces under Kiev control can be destroyed or made to switch sides while it is mostly in Donbass, the amount of manpower that can be generated for the NAF and equipment captured or supplied to provide for offensive operations, and the capture of the oil refineries at Lisichasnk near Severodonetsk and the Kremenchug refinery outside Kremenchuk which together are 75% of Ukrainian refining capacity. By my estimation, real panic in Kiev will set in with the seizure of the Lisichansk refinery and the fall of the first major city outside Donbass (Kharkov or Melitopol), while wholesale military defections and a possible military coup or popular revolution or 3rd party intervention (Poland? also possibly Hungary and Romania) are likely if the NAF could seize the Dnipr bridgeheads and the Kremenchug refinery."