UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Condit - Statistical Model Estimates


Demian Maia 66.3% Carlos Condit 33.7%
Charles Oliveira 66.1% Anthony Pettis 33.9%
Paige VanZant 59.6% Bec Rawlings 40.4%
Jim Miller 53.4% Joe Lauzon 46.6%
Sam Alvey 67.0% Kevin Casey 33.0%
Enrique Barzola 73.9% Kyle Bochniak 26.1%
Alessio Di Chirico 62.6% Garreth McLellan 37.4%
Shane Campbell 65.5% Felipe Silva 34.5%
Chad Laprise 78.4% Thibault Gouti 21.6%
Adam Hunter 62.4% Ryan Janes 37.6%
Alex Ricci 52.9% Jeremy Kennedy 47.1%

While Condit is the vastly superior striker, the model still likes Maia to win the main event due to the takedown factor. Maia lands a lot of takedowns and Condit gets taken down a lot so that's a huge advantage for Maia. Condit has historically been very good at getting back to his feet, but that may prove to be a lot more difficult against Maia than it would be against other opponents.

In the co-main event, the model likes Oliveira over Pettis. Subjectively, I'm not thrilled with that pick as Oliveira has been somewhat fragile in the past - and Pettis's striking could exacerbate that problem. The model prefers Oliveira due to better striking and takedown statistics, but doesn't account for the weight class change for Pettis.

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