David Williams · @dwilliamsmma
8th Oct 2016 from TwitLonger
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson 2 - Statistics and Degenerate Gambling
Apologies for getting this out so late. It was a busy Friday so I forgot to put these numbers out until now. Going to do a slightly rushed post featuring both the model stats and the betting picks.
Note that these forecasts include a built-in home-cage advantage for UK fighters:
Michael Bisping 89.8% Dan Henderson 10.2%
Gegard Mousasi 80.4% Vitor Belfort 19.6%
Jimi Manuwa 53.8% Ovince St-Preux 46.2%
Stefan Struve 63.9% Daniel Omielanczuk 36.1%
Mirsad Bektic 80.1% Russell Doane 19.9%
Iuri Alcantara 55.7% Brad Pickett 44.3%
David Grant 52.9% Damian Stasiak 47.1%
Albert Tumenov 56.2% Leon Edwards 43.8%
Mike Perry 55.7% Danny Roberts 44.3%
Adriano Martins 53.2% Leonardo Santos 46.8%
Marc Diakiese 74.7% Lukasz Sajewski 25.3%
Yes, that's nearly a 90% estimate for Michael Bisping. He's not young, but he's a lot younger than Henderson. His significant strike stats are better to a dramatic extent. He has a better chin than Henderson at this point, although Henderson still has better KO power. Basically, Bisping has the advantage on Henderson in every category except punching power, but that's been the case in Henderson fights for a while now.
Add in the fact that Bisping is ranked #1 and Henderson is ranked #10, and that's how you get a 90% win estimate according to this model. The implied percentage according to betting odds is roughly 70 percent. The "true" chances of Bisping winning are probably somewhere in the middle of those two forecasts.
Here are the betting picks this time:
Current bankroll: $456.66 (+$74.32 from a HUGE UFC Fight Night last Saturday)
Michael Bisping -245: $29.60 to win $12.08
Jimi Manuwa +135: $8.94 to win $12.07
Leon Edwards +225: $8.60 to win $19.35
Marc Diakiese -225: $8.12 to win $3.61
Leonardo Santos +180: $7.88 to win $14.18
Mike Perry +110: $7.05 to win $7.76
Damian Stasiak +160: $6.41 to win $10.26
Brad Pickett +145: $2.69 to win $3.90
Basically I have a huge bet on Bisping to get his revenge on Henderson, then a bunch of standard bets behind that one. But as a longtime fan of Henderson's, I won't lie - it would be pretty darn cool to see him finally win a UFC title in his last fight.