French economy returns to growth in Q3, but rise in GDP less-than-expected


Preliminary official data released by French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies showed that France’s gross domestic product rose less-than-expected in the third quarter. Data showed that French GDP rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in Q3, from a decline of 0.1 percent in the previous quarter, missing expectations for a rise of 0.3 percent.

Details of the release showed that while fixed investment provided a modest positive contribution to growth in Q3, household consumption stagnated for the second consecutive quarter. And while exports rose a little more than ½ percent q/q, a notable increase in imports last quarter (up >2 percent q/q) meant that net trade subtracted ½ppt from growth inQ3.

It was disappointing to see that in the absence of a particularly large positive contribution from stock accumulation (½ppt), the French economy would have contracted for the second successive quarter.

Seperate release showed French inflation came in slightly below expectations, with the headline CPI rate on the EU-harmonised basis remaining unchanged in October at 0.5 percent y/y, albeit still the highest pace since 2014. And the national CPI measure was also unchanged at 0.4 percent y/y. Details showed that sharp pick up in energy prices was offset by easing in services and food price inflation.

Finance Minister Michel Sapin admitted Q3 figures will make it difficult for the government to achieve its full-year growth target of 1.5 percent, though he rejected suggestions that the Socialist Party seek an alternative presidential candidate.

Source: FxWire Pro - Commentary

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